The Future is Bright

I cannot help but be optimistic - despite being bombarded with tons of evidence to the contrary. Last week's article in Time Magazine about how food demand is outstripping supply for the first time ever, and how food production is already extremely stressed by the effects of climate change, and how solutions like GMO are going to save food supplies, could be construed as the most depressing and negative of outlooks. And yet, I still feel optimistic.

A number of long-shot things must align in order for my optimistic predictions to come true --

(1) There must be an acknowledgement by politicians - especially American politicians - that climate change is real and is already effecting food production. And therefore climate change must be built into the forecasts and needs of food production.

(2) Farm subsidies must be re-aligned. Ironically, because of rising demand and tightening supply, some farmers are members of the one economic sector that is making money. Lots of money. But is it the right kind of money? Local, organic producers are still struggling. Small holders and substitence farming are still rare and economically difficult. Farm subsidies for large producers - especially of crops like corn and soy - must be capped (and by the way, so must oil subsidies). Why should the public support farmers (or oil companies) when their profits are supporting them very nicely, thank you very much!

(3) Food prices must be realigned with real value and real costs. This one is a biggie, I know. Why is it that local, organic food prices are so much higher than the big supermarkets charge. I understand about economies of scale, but they really go too far. Supermarket profit margins are so ridiculously tight anyway that only the largest and most powerful of producers and marketers can get on the shelves of the big chains. And this has to change. A consumer must experience some tough love in order for this point to be realized and help realign food production and distribution. No one wants to do this - not the manufacturers, not the retailers, and certainly not the politicians, but it's going to have to come sooner or later. There are signs of this already taking effect in the Chocolate industry. The amount of "gourmet" chocolate now on the market and competing (at much higher prices) with the mainstream products, belies the fact that cocoa production is currently one of the first industries that is having to face reality. Social and environmental factors are conspiring to force demand for cocoa to greatly outstrip supply, and there is no let up in sight. Consumers are going to have to face the harsh reality that what they're currently paying for food is not the real cost of food, and that they're going to have to change their purchasing habits to accomodate the new reality. The upside of this is that as the value of food increases in the eye of the consumer, food waste will likely go down significantly and social problems such as obesity could very well be positively affected too.

(4) Food companies are going to have to 'fess up. They're going to have to change their working relationships with their suppliers and eventually stop all the s**t from rolling downhill. This is also going to be painful, but actually some companies have started to take baby steps in this direction. There are decades of animosity and piles of s**t to overcome, but economic realities have necessitated some companies to start building bridges and collaborations that have a lot of longterm potential to help the situation.

(5) Global infrastructure is going to have to become a priority if food is to get to every corner of the world where it is needed. Today, the western world wastes tons and tons of food, during production, during transport, in the home, and at restaurants. Alone, that waste could feed hundreds of thousands in areas where food shortages are become more extreme. By forcing the value of food higher in the western world, consumption and waste will naturally decrease, thereby leaving more to be distributed elsewhere. Ironically, the manufacturers and retailers could do very well out of this. If they think ahead, build their global distribution infrastructure correctly, anticipate long term need in non-traditional markets, they could do very well indeed.

It will take a little vision, and a lot of optimism, but it is all possible. Perhaps not in my lifetime, but I'm hopeful that in my daughter's lifetime, food will have a very different place on the table.